|
 Burak
Turna, comes to be one of the most pronounced names through his first book
“Metal Storm” (as Metal Firtina). His first book, which is based on the
examination of the results of a possible war between Turkey and United
States is now followed by the book named “Third World War” which draws
attention to the possible outcomes of the past and present tensions that
take place between the great powers that determine the world balances.
Through examining how such a potential global conflict might develop and in
case of materialization of such a situation whatever the Turkey’s position
will be, the author will arouse the interest of the reader by his fluent
language, his interesting fiction and will attract the reader as if this
chaotic environment is real.
According to Turna, one of the few authors interested in politics fiction,
conjunctures of the present day provides a shelter for a basic
infrastructure of a world war and outbreak of this war is inevitable. We
discussed the time, the results of a possible world war, Turkey’s role in
the probable equilibrium and his foresights about the future.
How much of the contents depend on fiction, how much depends on analyses and
how much depends on knowledge?
Actually the basic configuration of the “Third World War” is based on the
present day. But there are some formations in the book. For instance, there
is a mind that strives for the eruption of a war and that mind comes into
being through an organization, which is named as “Fellowship of Death”. This
organization is of course fictional; but the existence of the idea of such a
mind which believes that a war will outbreak and which will try to give
shape to the war in the direction of their interests depends on my analyses.
In terms of knowledge, almost all the technical data used in the Third World
War depends on real facts and rest part of it consists of synthesized facts,
which is the synthesis of different facts. That’s why the politics notion
rather than the fiction notion of the political fiction dominates in the
book.
What is the probability of the outbreak of the third world war?
Let me explain like this; the probability of the outbreak of the third world
war is one hundred percent. In the near but not too near future a world war
anyhow will outbreak. In a way, this is a historical necessity, as well. I
mean, when you examine statistically, you can figure out that once in every
70 years a global conflict arises especially because of European reasons.
Subsequently newly emerged global powers supersede the ex-global powers. We
can see the indications of these today. The first indicators of these are;
drastic regional conflicts which subsequently turns into interest struggles.
The tensions arising between the major powers aggravate these interest
struggles, and finally if one of the sides surpasses the others by far, that
side decides to take action in order to persist that situation. Somewhat
that side tries to hit the mortal blow. This is what has happened up until
now. There are also provocations, sparks in these cases, but all of these
are nothing but details. What matters most is that the necessary
circumstances have been generated.
As for you, today the conjuncture of the world is consistent to this
situation then?
Yes, the probability is very high with this conjuncture. Because the world
recognized the subsequent period of Cold War as third world war but that was
the peacetime, not the wartime.
But that period generally served for the establishment of peace...
 Yes,
but there is a point. For instance; 500 years ago, you can never and ever
see any other period as peaceful as Cold War times. Now, tension has arisen.
The tension is so high that it didn’t have an end for almost 800-900 years,
within this period wars didn’t have an end, as well. But there are
fluctuations. That’s the point; Cold war is the period of downward
fluctuations. Now tension keeps rising. Of course, there are some factors
which have an influence on this. For instance, it’s been told that the
nuclear weapons obstructs the eruption of this war but at that point I have
a different idea: If the only problem is the usage of the nuclear weapons,
that can easily be solved. Because these powers can not remain stable in
this equilibrium forever. Whenever one gains supremacy, she will by all
means attempt to ensure its permanence. This is something, which is related
to power philosophy and power psychology. That is to say, when a nation
reaches to a certain degree of power, she naturally demands for its
permanence. This is at the same time a psychological fact. In this case,
what prevents the eruption of a world war is the existence of the nuclear
weapons. Whenever this problem is technically solved that will be time the
war will begin.
What do you mean by “technically solved”? How will they prevent the usage of
nuclear weapons?
It can be prevented, if you enable making the nuclear weapon usage
destructive for the user herself. Then there will be no usage of the nuclear
weapons. For instance, if a defense system operating in space succeeds at
exterminating the weapons just when they are fired or while they are getting
off the ground, that nuclear weapon explodes within the territories of that
country which is actually to shoot one with his weapon. Another way is to
exterminate that nuclear weapon within ionosphere, in its ballistics phase,
which will cause damage to electronic equipment. And the electrification of
the Ionosphere will terminate the entire communication system of that
region. Thence, the usage of the nuclear weapons may become impractical. The
only way to use the nuclear weapons come up only by submarines. Considering
that big countries could neutralize the usage of the nuclear weapons to an
extent, they could also tolerate the usage of a few weapons in their
country. For instance, today, American System has been structured to take
risk of a loss up to 100 million. Which means, if the incidents turns into a
world war and if the case is the last pace of a worldwide hegemony, they
could accept the loss of one or two cities. They will of course reflect this
to the counter side very negatively. People can have a conflict without the
usage of nuclear weapons.
Do you think that there are forces, which operate or lay the groundwork
for the eruption of the third world war?
I think there is a consciousness. My general theses is that; Previously
history was chaotic I mean the worldwide communication was too weak.
Generally, influence of the focus of powers couldn’t reach to everywhere,
but now they can reach. They can intervene in every action. Accordingly,
history is not chaotic anymore. Now, history can be oriented. It became a
history, which is made by humans. Now the incidents can be controlled. And I
think that there is a consciousness, which tries to control the history to
serve on his interests. It never reflects to us what kind of an organization
it is. We can only advance theories on that.
That consciousness, I mean the secret organizations that controls the world,
do they want a world war?
When the time comes, they will give start to the eruption of the war. A
world war has a definite infrastructure. For instance, economically a fall
in the profits of a worldwide economy brings the necessity to balance it.
When you examine it, you can see that the profit margins are actually
decreasing. Moreover, because of the global economy recent competitors
emerge in the market and these competitors increase the social problems of
the west. As a result, the equilibrium, which was in favor of the West, is
now imbalanced. Now West is required to rectify this situation and for this
reason the will for the eruption of the world war slightly derives from
West. Here, East is in re-active position.
 As
we touch upon the economic power, your book “Third World War” starts with
Magna Carta and conveys information regarding the limitation of King John’s
authority by the land users and the merchants who have the grip on the
economy. From that day on, are there any differences in the relationship
between the ruling class and the economically powerful class?
Actually, nothing has changed. The world is still being ruled with the
understandings of 1215. On those times, the papacy was again one of the most
biggest power multipliers and owners of the economic resources could
influence the governments as well. As for today, we examine that nothing has
changed. Of course the shape of everything changes and the influence of them
increases. Now there is the notion of global economy. Countries are more
powerful and technology is more developed. The very same theatre stage play
adapted in 1215, is now being played in the stadium. It’s the same scenario;
Power Struggle. That’s all. There is a potential and the desire to rule and
reorient this potential leads to the continuation of the wars of power
struggle, nothing has changed.
States in the world of globalization developed regional and economical
associations in order to increase their portion of cake within the
capitalist system. Is this formation period become worn out, anyhow?
Yes, globalization became worn out. Retaining walls against the
globalization increases. And it has been realized that the regional
dynamics, indeed, have no immense returns. Those were the tools necessary
only for that instant. They were used for political efficiency by the
countries. For instance, today, NAFTA, which has been established by USA is
not even mentioned and the contracts signed by the European Union remained
to be actions just listed on the papers. Even they had transformed into the
unity of money implementation, uncertainty in political area carries out the
indications of coming to an end in the long run. For this reason, I think
that every country enters into a period of nationalism with global
perspective. Besides, world wars always erupt in these periods. The tension
increases when the national interests overpower the global interests.
According to your scenario, alliance of Orthodox Christians, Muslims and
East religions have Europe and Catholic-Protestants in front of them. And
you recognize the East-West War in this way. What is the impetus of
development of such a division?
Orthodoxy understanding forms the basis of the Christianity. It is the tool
that has accepted the Christianity when it came on the scene, as it is, as
uncorrupted. Afterwards this has turned out to be power struggle through the
use of religion by Catholics and Protestants. And for this reason they
always crushed the Orthodoxy understanding. As a result, the alliance of the
Orthodox and the Muslims is a naturally synthesized alliance. For instance,
today interesting things happen. The co-operation of Russian federation and
China has drawn worldwide attention. They said that, they had done this
against terrorism, which is actually making fun of USA, since USA claims
that what she makes is anti-terrorist operations in Afghanistan and they say
they’re doing these against terror, as well. The point is that,
anti-terrorist operations are not made with 50-100 warships. This is
actually a message to USA; to show her place and to show the existence of
such a force. In the past, China was an enemy for Russia. But she is not
anymore. And this shows that the book has mainly oriented to analyses and it
strikes the keynotes.
In this context, the economic growth of China causes worldwide economical
fluctuations and this naturally damages USA. Can this situation be pregnant
with consequences of a China-USA war?
 Actually,
USA doesn’t suffer from the growth of China because America has a different
structure, a strange structure. There are two economies in America. On the
one hand there is a financial economy and on the other hand there is a
commercial economy in both of which millions of people work. China has
developed in terms of factories, in terms of real economy. The income of
China from these areas is lend to America and America utilizes from the
money on her financial system, interest system and service sector which is,
in a way, giving what she is taking. This is not the case in Europe. Europe
genuinely comes to harm through the global competition and her economical
equilibrium becomes corrupted. This is why the war erupts in Europe, in my
book. USA has been cleverly established. It’s a system that on the one hand
USA bears losses and on the other hand she repairs those losses. She borrows
money from the one who actually takes her workforce. In late five years,
China lends significant amounts of money to USA. For this reason, The
China-USA war will take root from extensive gird of USA to China. And that
has become to a certain point. China will stop the stopping of the USA.
Somewhat, she will act to break that gird.
Will the “super power” position of America continue after the World War?
No. The “super power” position of America will not continue after this war.
After the war, East states will dramatically transform into regional powers
and the world will, again, go into an unstable period just like what has
happened in the Second World War. A new world war lays the foundations of
the next world war. I think that this war will be on a large scale. After
the eruption, the world will go through a 40-50 year period of war. But
there is something, these are foreseen by other people, as well. On the
basis of these predictions there could be attempts to prevent these
formations. For this reason, I mentioned a meteor weapon in the book. There
could be development of such a technology that it could alter all the
parameters and all the equations. Besides, this is the ultimate reason of
the China in the actions of obstruction of USA space activities.
How will be the equilibrium between USA and the Russia Federation?
Russia has been developed significantly with the help of USA. The rise of
the petroleum prices is the factor, which strengthens Russia. Moreover, the
economical structure of the Asian region especially China, Malaysia,
Indonesia has been strengthened as well. The economical gravity centers,
which will emerge within these areas are too important for Russia. For
instance, energy need of China increases. She could demand energy from
Russia, rather than Iranian Gulf, there exists such operations. And I think,
Russia will make re-construction in order to be super power again.
How can Turkey take a part in this equilibrium?
This is a very fragile period. Turkey-EU relations will end. Most probably,
the relations will go in the opposite direction after 3rd
October. Consequently, Turkey will make forward operation in the region in
order to throw her weight about which I think it will be the correct move to
take. Since, the zone of influence of Turkey reaches to China. If the
certain equations are used properly Turkey should become one of the most
significant powers in the region. Just so, Turkey should develop such a
vision.
Is there such a vision in Turkey?
That vision, begin to move slightly. Turkey is much more confident now. We
can recognize positive indications. I think there is a vision or there will
be a vision.
TURKEY-EU RELATIONS
Can we say that the powers within EU structure who fear from and are against
the admission of Turkey to European Union will cause the disintegration of
the union?
EU is a structure, which will disintegrate anyhow. This disintegration will
start with economical fluctuations and consequently these will give rise to
political influences, which will increase disintegration process in turn.
The debates about Turkey also constitute certain inputs in the
disintegration process. In the long term European Union is not a permanent
institution, EU may exist as a so-called institution, in the future.
Facts of the divergence of opinions, the denial decisions of referendums
regarding the Constitution of EU that take place, are these the first seeds
of the disintegration of the Union?
These are just the first indications… These actually prove that, though it
has a long-standing history and though transformation into unity of money
has been accomplished, the idea of European Union has not been settled yet.
Countries, because of their nationalist tendencies, are not ready for
acknowledging themselves to other will powers rather than will power of
their capital city. The facts of today show these.
 What
do you think about the admission of Turkey to EU? Are you against the
admission?
Yes, I’m against the admission; If EU accredits Turkey as an equivalent
power and suggests the admission, we may accept the admission. There could
be no harms caused by the admission. But I’m by no means against entreating
EU earnestly for admission. There is not much thing that EU can immensely
provide us, it only provides advantages on terms of economy which generates
mainly from being a member to a union for a period of time. But we shouldn’t
put pressure on EU for our admission and we shouldn’t make any concessions.
Anyhow, we had already made many concessions up until now, hadn’t we?
We shouldn’t make a concession regarding the Cyprus issue. There is no need
for such a thing. The present conjuncture gradually expands Cyprus to outer
world. Therefore, Cyprus can generate advantages only with the influences of
the Cyprus herself not with the assistance of Europe.
The last approval regarding the conduct of negotiations will be given on 3rd
October. What do you think the decision will be? (Interview was made on
September 10, 2005).
I think they will say; “we can not appoint a date for Turkey but the
conduct of negotiations may start now”
So, the normal process will progress but there won’t be any improvements…?
The process in which no progress takes place will keep going with gradually
increasing tension. Because I think, at this stage, Europeans won’t make a
complete refusal, which will leave the case in dilatory and which will be of
use for no sides. But there is something in the Cyprus issue; if they insist
on that issue there could be unexpected results. We may encounter cease or
postponement of the negotiations, in a flash. I have to admit that this
wouldn’t surprise me.
Do you think that the basic principals of foreign policy of Turkey are
properly conducted?
I think foreign policy of Turkey has been successfully performed in the last
five years. The most important case is the official note of 1st
March. That was a triumphant action. Even solely that action is a crucial
landmark. Apart from these, I think the relations with EU are being
conducted prosperously. We are conducting a policy which is not so
encouraging and which is not submissive as in the past. From these point of
views, our policy is affirmative.
MIDDLE EAST
What will happen next in Iraq?
Iraq will disintegrate in a particular period of time and 3 independent
states will arise. Iraq is already disintegrated. There is no country as
Iraq anymore. Just like what happened in the last 20-30 years of the
Ottomans; merely her name exists.
Can the very same process take effect in Iran, as well? Will Iran be the
next?
 The
Iran case can not be identical but Iran is much more alike to Turkey. We
have to monitor the developments that take in Iran closely. Iran is the
first target of USA in the coming period. But when will this happen? The
Katrina tornado has affected some things. This will prevent aggressive
attitude of America for a while. They will also orient to the problems
arising from global warming. She will have to postpone dealing with some
cases. Because a city has been vanished. These were, anyhow, expected
things. They happen all the time. It could have happened five years later
but it happened today. Maybe someday an earthquake might be in California.
These are all the unexpected “x” factors. They may cause forward dating.
Is the Kurdish state has been positioned as a new opponent against Arabs
instead of Israel?
This is Mahir Kaynak’s opinion. I am not too interested with the case. But
the case is of course remarkable. Assume that this has been determined; what
will it serve for? It won’t serve for anything. These analyses are useful
for expansion of conception but they are not notable. What’s important is
the existence of such an opponent, it doesn’t make any difference, who that
opponent is.
Is the existence of boron minerals in Turkey a factor that inevitably leads
Turkey to be a party in a possible 3rd World War?
No the boron minerals won’t be effective in that case. The influence of
boron minerals will eventuate in the coming 50 years. I don’t presuppose
that much time for the eruption of the third world war.
Pakistan
and Israel held a gathering for the first time in their history through the
mediatorship of Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul last month. What could these
improvements be a sign of in the Middle East?
Turkey has always played the mediatorship roles very successfully. But I
don’t think that this situation is not mainly eventuated for Middle East.
This is so different. I think no one knows about the subject which they
shake their hands for. It could be a treaty on the deployment of the nuclear
weapons or it could be the decisions regarding very different subjects such
as on drugs or on arms traffic. They may have signed up a security agreement
on these issues. I think that this case is very interesting. I couldn’t
associate these with anything, these are the only things that I can
associate this case with, there are no other associations other than these.
USA TURKEY RELATIONS
IS “METAL STORM” POSSIBLE?
How do you assess the USA’s point of view regarding Turkey? What role do you
think USA casts for Turkey?
USA doesn’t even look at Turkey. USA looks for this region. She has benefits
on the region because of the energy and the strategic settlement. She will
evaluate all the countries within this area, this is what I mean by saying
USA doesn’t even look at Turkey. Her vision is; “under these circumstances,
is this country of use for me or not”. If that country is of use for her,
she will support that country but if she is not of use for USA, USA will
envisage to clash with Turkey on the subject matter up to a point. She
evaluates Turkey totally as a regional factor and analyses to what extent
Turkeys’ politics is in line with her politics.
 Is
an attack of USA to Turkey possible?
That probability decreases day by day. I hope this probability totally
vanishes. According to some quarters in USA began to think that USA must act
much more rationally. There is a conflict regarding this subject. The inner
politics of USA is gradually becoming difficult. The things will be
difficult for Bush, as well. There are some problems with Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld
tries to implement much more rational approaches in Pentagon. The
uncertainty of achieving goals regarding Iran, which is the main target,
started to increase. Under these circumstances they cannot take the risk of
clashing Turkey. I have to mention again that the Katrina tornado has
delayed many things. We may experience Issues of Iraq may be concealed in
the coming period. I think that USA will need to tidy up her house for a
while.
How do you evaluate the scene emerged after the Katrina Tornado? On the one
side there are the concepts such as the American dream, wealthiness, welfare
country and on the other side people gathered in a saloon, suffering extreme
poverty. Are these the real aspects of America?
We all know that America is a rich country. And we all know that she has
technological hegemony. Actually, USA is a machine; that machine has a brain
part as well as the oily parts, which is in touch with other parts, doing
the things. What Katrina Tornado has shown to us is that natural disasters,
the will of God doesn’t listen to USA or other things. Natural disasters are
different. This has proved me that, though we try to control history, the
nature can in a flash alter the history. I mean this uncertainty will always
remain. People like me, who predict and tell the future, will always be
bewildered.
You told that the probability of an attack of USA to Turkey gradually
decreases. Do you think that this is a result of Metal Storm?
The public opinion impact, which has been created by the “Metal Storm” is so
important. Imagine you are thinking that your house is going to be robbed by
a man and you suddenly start to scream. This is what we say as slapping the
one before he breaks the jug (a Turkish idiom which mentions the importance
of taking precautions). This is what the most important thing is. We are
never to know that the jug is going to break or not. We only know the
probability. Everybody found the book “Metal Storm” ridiculous. If they step
into a job on the grounds of the book, they can never manage to explain this
to any country in the world. Metal Strom is something weird. I hope it could
stamp something on the history.
This is some sort of psychological war that you conducted, isn’t it?
Actually we may consider it like this. This was not a hostile war it was a
defense war. I, as an author from Turkey, acted in accordance with the
responsibility of being a Turkish citizen in that book. I realize that I
could have achieved that goal. And I think, from this point of view I had
reached the satisfaction that an author ever may reach. This satisfaction is
beyond the satisfaction of being an author.
Have you received technical information from any institution for Metal Storm
and subsequent works or are all the books based on delusion?
No these are totally my delusions. For instance I did the researches for all
the weapons of nano-technology and I developed them. I also advanced the
theories. I like to deal with such matters.
Will “Metal Storm” be a set?
Time will show it. I have the fiction in my mind but time will show it. If
the reader likes the story and asks for the other stories I may write.
Have you heard anything about the consideration of the military regarding
your books?
My books are read by the military a lot. For instance “third world war” is
immensely being read by the army members. They like it, otherwise they
wouldn’t read, I guess. They sometimes send e-mails. They like to read my
books.
Your next Book “Sistema” which will be published on September explains your
philosophy system. What is your mathematics of thinking?
This is a thinking system, which totally alters the classical thinking
infrastructure. It a way of thinking which leaves the view point of
causality and action-reaction causality aside and brings forth a complicated
point of view which is not only complicated on the grounds but also relates
the ideas to each other in the terms of time dimensions. As a result it is a
point of view, which links today with tomorrow and inevitably with the
future. Consequently it is a scientific foresight system, a future
prediction system, a prophecy system.
How long did it take for you to develop this system?
The book has been written in a week after 3-4 years of a period of thinking.
I think, people get anxious about this study…
They send me e-mails like this; Subject: Sistema. I want this book!
In your book “Metal Storm” you had written that Condoleezza Rice will be
appointed to Ministry of Foreign Affairs and afterwards it became true. In
“Metal Storm 2” there is a similar prediction; Defense Minister Rumsfeld has
been suspended of the office and acquires a moderate profile…
And this has become true, as well.
This has become true, as well. Are these coincidences?
 No,
these are not coincidences. These are true analyses. If you analyze
classically, you can’t get hold of these facts. Classical analyze is the way
of analyzing in broad terms, in general terms. This analyzing system is used
in focused and limited areas. It can link extraneous things to each other.
I look at the things that Rumsfeld do at the time being; he is the one who
has been actively providing all the policies of USA since the 80’s. I look
at the things he had done and the consequences of his actions. And then I
look at today’s conditions. Consequently I ask myself; ‘will this person who
has experienced those things and who has specific views choose to go from
that way or this way?’ He is a man acting from the viewpoint of “USA has the
hegemony over the world” I realize that the present day of Rumsfeld is too
far away from his point of view in the past. At this stage psychology steps
in. I begin to analyze Rumsfeld as a human rather than a minister. If a
person who has been actively involved in politics for 20-30 years, now
obtains these results, what could be his tendency? Could it be “let’s go
further” or could it be “Let’s stop here”. He has consumed his energy. He
can’t stay behind the standpoint that he had defended in the 80’s. Have the
energy of the powers who insists on the continuation of the hegemony of USA
became exhausted or their motivation depleted? No way! This is the state
configuration. A person at the age of his retirement will collide with the
interests of the management, which has to have an enduring renewal. I mean
the things are not always based on a simple causality.
I want this book, as well.
You can implement these to career planning department of your company as
well. People gradually increase their positions. Maybe in ten years time you
will disassemble the upward movement curve of the company. You can use
Sistema in such extraneous cases.
Lastly, You begin to write in derKi this month. You have an interview with
Mahir Kaynak in the 12th
edition. What will be your next studies?
Because of my origin, generally, I alter myself. I always try to find the
most accurate, perfect and virtuous ways and I try to implement these in my
life. I try to do these sometimes by breaking the classical thinking
systems. I try to do new things. I guess these will be reflected on my
writings. I will try to put forth different viewpoints to incidents. These
incidents will be the incidents that take place within the system of course.
I may develop new ways of thinking through the consequent interaction of the
readers. Maybe, sistema may change as a result of a need. There will be
consequent books. This is only the beginning. The logic in sistema explains
the general. In second and third editions we will approach to a phase, to an
area of thinking where communication of the reality and psyche exists. This
is something, which may develop within 5-10 years’ time. I will try to
develop a mathematical approach and make an entire analyze of the
communication. Maybe, I will try to explain that the communication era
doesn’t mean to talk to each other. Maybe I will try to explain how a
perfect society can be developed. I may explain Sistema with a novel. I
don’t know… More or less I will reflect same things in my writings. And I
think it will be nice…
So do I.. Thank you so much.
I do thank you.
Interview date: Sept 10, 2005
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